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2008-09 Natural Gas Annual Forecast

	2008-09 Forecast Published October 1, 2007 Call or e-mail Gelber for your copy today clients@gelbercorp.com

2008-09 Forecast Includes:

• Forecasted daily closing price for the NYMEX natural gas futures contract November 2007 through March 2009
• CD ROM for your organization
• Written text support of the Forecast pricing expectation
• On-going forecast support, including UPDATES and research analysis
• Forecast revisitation in March of 2008 to revisit the price expectations post-winter
• Optional forecast presentation, facilitation, and roundtable discussion led by Art Gelber

Methodology

Gelber & Associates' forecasting skills have been proven over several years of success. Gelber focuses on the natural gas market and our forecasts excel at predicting pertinent price activity. Gelber's methodology relies on interpreting supply and demand information in a framework that adheres to skillful technical aspects of the extremely volatile natural gas market. Gelber's approach has found success by dealing with the following features in order of importance:

• market geometry
• market trend
• timing of major market turning points
• seasonal probability analysis
• price level
• technical goals and targets

Gelber considers the correlation between actual and forecasted "market geometry" to be the primary parameter for measuring the success of a price forecast. The geometry of the market is the overall shape of pricing for natural gas over a period of time. We understand that predicting an accurate curve for price developments enables participants in the market to clearly know when to enter the market and when not to participate. In contrast, other forecasts focus on accurately predicting absolute price levels and have a tendency towards reforecasting multiple times to predict marginal pricing. Our model and methodology has proven successful for many years as shown in the graph below. By finding the timing of major market turning points, we have contributed significantly to the overall value of the various clients Gelber has had over the years.

By focusing on actual price level as a secondary market forecast parameter, Gelber's clients are most able to buy the market near the lower end of the market and avoid buying in the vicinity of market highs, regardless of the absolute price.

The graph above shows Gelber's 1999 (issued in September 1998), 2000 (issued in September 1999) and 2001 (issued in September 2000) compared against the NYMEX market actual prices. In every year shown above, Gelber's forecast has proven accurate in determining the timing of the highs and lows of the natural gas market. The ability to recognize these timing zones allowed our clients to maximize their portfolio potential. The information provided in the Forecast has a legacy of accuracy, but it is just the foundation for Gelber's approach to the market. Our iterative services help guide our customers through the difficult terrain of absolute price movement, allowing them to take full advantage of our understanding and insight into the energy markets.

Gelber & Associates' Annual Natural Gas Industry Review and Price Forecast has added considerable value to our clients as a separate strategic document or as a part of our premiere Least Cost Purchasing Practices® and Price Stabilization Protocol®. Least Cost Purchasing Practices® is designed specifically for industrial consumers who are focused on driving down the acquisition price of natural gas. Price Stabilization Protocol® is designed for utility companies who have a need to mitigate price volatility and drive down acquisition price while operating in a prudent manner.

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