European Natural Gas Storage and Winter Weather Expectations

European natural gas storage is in a solid position but behind the exceptional pace of recent years. As of early August, EU storage stands near 70% full, well below the ~90% reached at this time in 2024 and 2023. Policymakers have eased storage rules this year, allowing flexibility in meeting the 90% target between October 1 and December 1 in an effort to avoid creating summer price spikes. With steady injections and strong LNG inflows, Europe will still likely reach 85–90% before winter, but it will probably require higher autumn imports versus last year.

As with any natural gas market, weather remains the biggest uncertainty. NOAA and other agencies see a rising chance of La Niña conditions by late 2025, which can tilt European winters colder, but probabilities remain split with neutral scenarios. A cold snap would accelerate withdrawals, while a mild winter could leave Europe oversupplied. Other European supply risks include unplanned outages in Norway, which have recently rattled prices, and an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season that could temporarily curb U.S. LNG exports.

LNG is now the backbone of Europe’s gas supply, with the United States firmly in the lead, providing over half of imports in the first half of 2025. The new $750 billion EU–U.S. energy pledge reinforces transatlantic trade, though some analysts question its feasibility given Europe’s gradual demand decline. For the near term, abundant LNG and growing global liquefaction capacity through 2026 mean cargoes should be available if Europe needs extra supply.

Prices reflect a balanced market. European winter contracts (TTF, NBP) are around €35–36/MWh (~$10/MMBtu), trading at a modest premium to summer, signaling limited fears of a winter supply crunch. U.S. Henry Hub sits near $3/MMBtu, with the transatlantic price spread far narrower than last winter. While current curves suggest a manageable winter, any severe cold wave or supply disruption could trigger sharp price moves.