Agbami Maintenance Tightens Nigerian Light Sweet Supply

Big moves today in the gas markets as January NYMEX is trading near $5.45/MMBtu this morning, surging from yesterday’s $5.06 close and marking the highest prompt-month print since 2022. Winter is here, and prices have caught on, rallying over 70% since the lows seen in mid-October. Futures started to briefly push through $5 earlier this week and have held those gains amid a tightening market. Today’s fundamental balances show production hovering just under 108 Bcf/d with Canadian imports slipping to just below 7 Bcf/d, putting total US supply at 114.7 Bcf/d. On the demand side, powerburn is running near 38 Bcf/d, which is seasonally high and combining with quickly ramping ResComm load, reaching the upper-40s Bcf/d as temperatures run colder and colder. LNG feedgas holds firm at the incredibly strong level of 19.2 Bcf/d pushing total demand close to 148 Bcf/d. Finally, yesterday’s EIA data showed a 12 Bcf withdrawal for the week ended November 28, the third straight draw and a clear confirmation that the withdrawal season is now in full swing.

On the supply side, rig dynamics continue to underscore how tight the upstream response can be when prices spike. In the last full read, the combined US oil and gas rig count sat at 856, with oil-focused rigs at 659 and gas-focused rigs at 197, levels that were already brushing up against equipment and crew constraints. Many contractors now insist on longer-term contracts before reactivating idle fleets. In practical terms, that cost and availability backdrop makes it harder for producers to rapidly scale drilling just because Henry Hub has ripped higher. This, in turn, keeps more of the heavy lifting on demand destruction, storage draws, and export arbitrage rather than a quick surge in new gas supply, even as LNG feedgas demand and export economics scream for more molecules.

Front-month WTI trades around $60.22/bbl this morning, up from yesterday’s $59.67 close, as a mix of modest macro tailwinds and fresh West African headlines nudge prices above the $60 handle. In offshore Nigeria, Chevron has confirmed that the key Agbami deepwater field is in the middle of a five-week turnaround from November 19 through December 27, with exports already running light, only one cargo scheduled in November and none yet for December versus a more typical three cargoes per month. Agbami, a 47.9-API light sweet grade that fed 79,000 b/d gross in October and is popular with refiners in India, Brazil, and Europe, has long been a core Atlantic Basin benchmark; the maintenance outage is tightening availability just as Abuja is trying to rebuild national output and launch a new licensing round targeting up to 400,000 b/d of incremental production. In the near term, traders expect European buyers to backfill missing Agbami barrels with WTI Midland and other Nigerian sweets like Akpo, a shift that supports West African differentials and keeps a modest bid under light-sweet barrels.