September 2025 Edition
Gelber & Associates (G&A) is pleased to present our five-year outlook for the U.S. natural gas market covering 2025 through 2030. Since our last publication, the market has largely followed the path we anticipated: production remains near record levels, LNG feed-gas demand is ramping steadily, and pipeline additions have relieved several long-standing bottlenecks.
The commissioning of Plaquemines LNG (blocks 1-13 online and rising), commercial start at Calcasieu Pass 2 (April 2025), and staged starts at Corpus Christi Stage 3 and Golden Pass mark the beginning of a new export up-cycle. On our current tracking, installed U.S. LNG export capacity rises from roughly 16.5 Bcf/d at year-end 2025 to more than 28 Bcf/d by year-end 2030, with Port Arthur Phase 1 and Rio Grande Phase 1 anchoring late-period growth.
On the midstream side, new takeaway is reshaping flows. Matterhorn Express (2.5 Bcf/d) into the Gulf Coast and Mountain Valley (2.0 Bcf/d) from Appalachia are in service, improving basis and reliability into southeast and Gulf Coast markets. In Mexico, Southeast Gateway (1.3 Bcf/d) entered service in mid-2025, Centauro del Norte is advancing with initial capacity in 2025, and Fast LNG Altamira shipped its first cargo with further units planned. These routes deepen cross-border integration and support both U.S. natural gas exports and Mexican power and LNG demand.
This forecast unpacks how those buildouts intersect with Permian associated-gas growth, Appalachia's regulated but improving egress, and a slowly recovering Haynesville. We quantify impacts on price and basis at the key hubs we monitor: Waha, Katy, Tenn 500 Leg, Tetco ELA, Columbia Gulf ML, Texas Gas Zone 1, NGPL TexOk, Southern Star, CIG Rockies, and REX Zone 3.
The next five years are defined by LNG-led demand growth, incremental pipeline capacity, and resilient U.S. supply. We expect U.S. dry-gas production to grind higher through 2030, with basis outcomes improving where takeaway has expanded and remaining volatile where constraints, weather, or regulatory timelines persist. We hope you find this outlook and the accompanying basis, price, and infrastructure sections a practical guide to navigating 2025-2030.
